内容摘要：Palestinians look at their neighbour’s damaged house following an Israeli strike in Rafah, southern Gaza Strip, Saturday, Jan. 27, 2024. (AP Photo/Fatima Shbair)

Palestinians look at their neighbour’s damaged house following an Israeli strike in Rafah, southern Gaza Strip, Saturday, Jan. 27, 2024. (AP Photo/Fatima Shbair)

A runoff on June 1 is widely expected, with polls pointing to a likely showdown between Rafał Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, and Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian backed by the Law and Justice party, which governed Poland from 2015 to 2023.Poland’s geography gives the election added importance. Bordering Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, Belarus and war-torn Ukraine — as well as several Western allies — Poland occupies a critical position along NATO’s eastern flank and serves as a key logistics hub for military aid to Ukraine.

There are growing fears that if Russia prevails in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it could target other countries that freed themselves from Moscow’s control some 35 years ago. Against that backdrop, the election will shape Warsaw’s foreign policy at a moment of mounting strain on trans-Atlantic unity and European defense.Both leading candidates support continued U.S. military engagement in Europe. Trzaskowski puts greater emphasis on deepening ties with the European Union, while Nawrocki is more skeptical of Brussels and promotes a nationalist agenda.When Law and Justice held power, it repeatedly clashed with EU institutions over judicial independence, media freedom and migration.

While Poland is a parliamentary democracy, the presidency wields significant influence. The president serves as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, holds veto power, shapes foreign policy and plays a symbolic role in national discourse.Under Duda, the office largely advanced the conservative agenda of Law and Justice. Since Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist coalition came to power in late 2023, Duda has blocked key reforms aimed at restoring judicial independence and repairing relations with the EU.

“The stakes are enormous for the ruling coalition and for those concerned with the future of Polish democracy,” said Jacek Kucharczyk, president of the Institute of Public Affairs, a Warsaw think tank. “This is about democratic reform and restoring the rule of law — and that can only happen with cooperation from the next president.”

The election is also pivotal for Law and Justice, Kucharczyk noted: “Its future as a dominant political force may hinge on the outcome.”“If you’re here, right, on a student visa causing civil unrest ... assaulting people on the streets, chanting for people’s death, why the heck did you come to this country?” said Eliyahu Hawila, a software engineer who built the tool designed to identify masked protesters and outed the woman at the January rally.

Eliyahu Hawila, a software engineer who wrote a facial-recognition program to identify masked protesters, is seen in New York on Friday, March 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ted Shaffrey)Eliyahu Hawila, a software engineer who wrote a facial-recognition program to identify masked protesters, is seen in New York on Friday, March 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ted Shaffrey)

He has forwarded protesters’ names to groups pressing for them to be deported, disciplined, fired or otherwise punished.“If we want to argue that this is freedom of speech and they can say it, fine, they can say it,” Hawila said. “But that doesn’t mean that you will escape the consequences of society after you say it.”