内容摘要：Earlier this week, US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem flew to a Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Poland to endorse him as a "strong leader" like President Donald Trump.

Earlier this week, US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem flew to a Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Poland to endorse him as a "strong leader" like President Donald Trump.

He is, along with Nelson Mandela, South Africa's greatest ever alliance builder and facilitator. He was at the nerve centre of negotiating an end to the racist system of apartheid in the early 1990s, and in keeping South Africa together when many had prophesised its fatal fracture. He has stayed calm, smiled and faced down far more bitter opponents before.More recently, he steered the country out of the bleak

years of the Zuma administration and then through the difficult Covid lockdowns. And also kept the ANC on its feet - just - when it hobbled home after the 2024 elections. He then he took a wounded ANC into coalition politics and survived as president despite opposition from within his own party."I believe if a snap poll was done today, we would see his personal ratings go up," says South African editor and founder of explain.co.za Verashni Pillay."He excels in these high-pressure situations. He has this wealth of negotiating experience in arguably far more tense environments where there has been actual blood on the streets and imminent civil war. That's why you saw him looking particularly relaxed. He's masterful at diffusing tension at key moments."

Surveys have consistently referenced the Ramaphosa Effect - thefrom the Social Research Foundation last month which suggests that without him, the ANC would haemorrhage support even more than it already has, despite equally consistent criticism of the South African president that he is too slow and indecisive in tackling the country's biggest problems. To a large extent, that's still the case.

But events this week, ostensibly meant to bully, ridicule and embarrass Ramaphosa around the world, actually reminded many South Africans of what he brings to the government and the country - a constant, stable and predictable centre.

"I think what happened in the Oval Office has reinforced the idea of 'If not Ramaphosa then who?'" says Pillay.The anti-establishment candidates received three times as many votes as they did in the last presidential election in 2020.

While those voters support Nawrocki's socially conservative views, some libertarians disagree with his support for generous state benefits for the less well-off.Both candidates led large, rival patriotic marches in Warsaw last Sunday to show who had the biggest support.

Almost all the participants at Nawrocki's rally carried the red-and-white Polish flag. No-one had the blue EU flag. One banner read "Enough of Tusk's [demolition] of democracy".Magdalena and her sister Marta said Nawrocki's patriotism was important. "We care first for our family, then the nation and after that the world," Magdalena told me.