内容摘要：Britain’s King Charles III and Queen Camilla wave as they arrive by carriage on the first day of the Royal Ascot horse race meeting at Ascot, England, Tuesday, June 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Alberto Pezzali)

Britain’s King Charles III and Queen Camilla wave as they arrive by carriage on the first day of the Royal Ascot horse race meeting at Ascot, England, Tuesday, June 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Alberto Pezzali)

For Trump, tariffs are a diplomatic tool for his policy goals. But they’re also a threat possibly meant to jumpstart trade talks. They’re also a revenue raiser that he claims could bring trillions of dollars into the treasury.Trump did increase tariffs during his first term, with revenue collection more than doubling to an annual rate of $85.4 billion, which might sound like a lot but was equal to just 0.4% of the gross domestic product. Multiple analyses by the

, among others, say the threatened tariffs would increase costs for a typical family in a way that effectively raises taxes.What really matters is whether Trump delivers on his threats. That is why Ben Harris, a former Biden adviser who is now director of economic studies at the Brookings Institution, says voters should focus on average tariff rates.“Trade is really tricky” Harris said. “But in broad terms, look at what he does and not what he says.”

Trump likes to blame inflation on the national debt, saying Biden’s policies flooded the U.S. economy with more money than it could absorb. But about 22% of the $36 trillion outstanding total debt originated from the policies of Trump’s first term, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a fiscal watchdog.Paul Winfree, a former Trump staffer who is now president and CEO of the Economic Policy Innovation Center, warned in a recent analysis that the U.S. is getting too close for comfort to its fiscal limits. His analysis suggests that if Trump can preserve 3% growth he could extend his expiring 2017 tax cuts while keeping the debt sufficiently stable by cutting spending $100 billion to $140 billion a year.

The risk is that higher borrowing costs and debt can limit what Trump does while keeping borrowing costs high for consumers. Lawmakers who once viewed the debt as problem years away increasingly see it as something to address now.

“One of the biggest vibe shifts I’m picking up on now among policymakers is they’re beginning to realize the long-term is today,” Winfree said.Police take out a bag of marijuana from the pocket of an unidentified drug suspect after he was shot dead by police while trying to evade a checkpoint in Quezon city, north of Manila, Philippines, Sept. 6, 2016. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila, File)

Police take out a bag of marijuana from the pocket of an unidentified drug suspect after he was shot dead by police while trying to evade a checkpoint in Quezon city, north of Manila, Philippines, Sept. 6, 2016. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila, File)EDS NOTE: GRAPHIC CONTENT - Police inspect one of two unidentified drug suspects shot by police while trying to evade a checkpoint in Quezon city, north of Manila, Philippines, Sept. 6, 2016. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila, File)

EDS NOTE: GRAPHIC CONTENT - Police inspect one of two unidentified drug suspects shot by police while trying to evade a checkpoint in Quezon city, north of Manila, Philippines, Sept. 6, 2016. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila, File)Jose Luis Martin “Chito” Gascon, director of the independent Commission on Human Rights, described them as extrajudicial killings, and said the phenomenon has plagued the country at least since late dictator Ferdinand Marcos was ousted in a “people power” revolt in 1986.