内容摘要：The Grangemouth industrial complex is one of Scotland's major manufacturing facilities - but the imminent closure of Scotland's only oil refinery threatens 400 jobs.

The Grangemouth industrial complex is one of Scotland's major manufacturing facilities - but the imminent closure of Scotland's only oil refinery threatens 400 jobs.

That freeze, put in place by Mr Sunak and Mr Hunt, is effectively a tax rise because as people’s incomes grow with inflation - because their wages go up - more of what they earn exceeds the personal allowance and can be taxed.And this was set to include some people receiving the new state pension. It’s currently around £11,500 a year, but in 2028 is expected to rise to £12,578, slightly above the level of the personal allowance of £12,570.

It will continue rising above the minimum tax threshold from then on.So the Tories are proposing that the personal allowance rises to around £13,000 for pensioners from 2025 and keeps going up.The independent Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) think tank has pointed out that this is not so much a tax cut as a means to prevent pensioners from being hit by a tax rise that is already happening.

The IFS estimates a third of pensioners, those on the old state pension or with limited UK work history, won't see any tax relief under the scheme.The average pensioner could benefit by £300 a year, but low-income pensioners won't fare as well.

Analysis by BBC Head of Statistics Robert Cuffe found someone on the state pension alone will only save £29.40 a year by 2030.

The Financial Reporting Council (FRC) says its probe relates to “Thurrock Council’s operations and investment activities for the financial years ended 31 March 2018 to 31 March 2022”.In principle, it could mean either tax rises or spending restraint.

In practice, given the announcement of a significant increase in employers' National Insurance rates in October, the government's view is that it would have to mean spending restraint - Darren Jones, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, practically said as much in the Commons today.To be clear, spending restraint would not necessarily mean spending cuts, just much lower spending increases than would otherwise happen.

This is where economics could collide with politics fast.It's all very well for the Treasury to take measures to soothe the bond markets, where government debt is traded.